By Martin Merzer

McClatchy Newspapers

(MCT)

MIAMI - Scientists soon will lose access to crucial information that helps them better understand and predict everything from hurricanes and earthquakes to global warming and environmental decay, according to a candid and sobering report by prestigious experts.

As wide gaps develop in the ability of scientists to analyze natural phenomena, Floridians - particularly vulnerable to hurricanes, rising sea levels and environmental changes affecting fisheries and farmers - could be especially affected.

"It's a train wreck," said Otis Brown, dean of the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and a member of the National Academy of Science's panel that issued the report earlier this month.

"When you hope for the best, this is about the worst you could imagine in terms of things going awry," he said.

Among the reasons for this reversal of scientific fortunes: sharp budget cuts, ill-advised technological compromises, and a botched partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, according to the report.

And the setbacks come at an inopportune time.

NOAA recently reported that last year was the warmest on record in the United States, and a major study scheduled for release Friday by an international group of scientists is expected to amplify the developing crisis of global warming.

Scientist Stephen Hawking and several colleagues recently said climate change posed a threat nearly equal to that of nuclear proliferation.

To date, no one has challenged the panel's conclusions, which were released Jan. 15. NOAA and NASA said they were studying the 436-page report. A congressional committee vowed to apply "vigorous oversight" to the situation.

Among the highlights - or possibly lowlights - of the report by scores of experts working with the academy, which is chartered by Congress and advises the federal government on scientific matters:

_By 2010, the number of operating sensors and instruments on NASA's aging fleet of weather and other global-monitoring satellites will decrease 40 percent, and replacement sensors are behind schedule, over budget and, in many cases, less capable.

"The United States' extraordinary foundation of global observations is at great risk," the committee concluded.

Said Brown: "We're seeing a reduction in the development of new approaches and, in fact, we well could be worse off than we are now."

_In particular, there is "substantial concern" about the pending loss of an important satellite-based instrument employed by tropical weather forecasters and hurricane researchers.

The QuikSCAT information helps scientists estimate wind speeds at the ocean's surface. That information contributes to year-round forecasts of marine conditions, and it's crucially important to hurricane specialists, helping them assess the strength of storms that are far from land and often enabling the identification of new tropical systems.

But the device is well past its designed lifetime, which was expected to end by 2002, and budget concerns and technical compromises prompted NOAA to replace it with a less sophisticated instrument that still hasn't been launched, the committee said.

This could diminish the accuracy of hurricane and other forecasts, especially for coastal areas such as South Florida.

"The committee believes it's imperative that a measurement capability be available to prevent a data gap," the report concluded.

Chris Landsea, the National Hurricane Center's science and operations officer, called QuikSCAT a "wonderful tool" that has "become ingrained in our operations, and it could disappear tomorrow."

"What's available in the plans would be a degradation to that," Landsea said.

_Much of NASA's budget and many of its scientists are being diverted to the human space program that was re-energized by President Bush's proposal to send astronauts back to the moon and onward to Mars.

The president's 2007 budget reduced NASA's research and analysis budget for science missions 15 percent compared to 2005. Since 2000, the agency's earth-science budget has been slashed 30 percent. That caused the elimination of some projects, including measurements of solar radiation and Earth radiation that could help scientists understand global warming.

_In addition, many of NASA's scientists seem too interested in theoretical research and insufficiently focused on practical science that can address pressing environmental issues, the committee said.

In particular, the panel urged NASA scientists to transition from brief examinations of the climate to sustained studies that might help answer pressing questions about drought, soil moisture and other issues.

And, the panel said, coordination between NOAA and NASA is weak.

"The committee is particularly concerned with the lack of clear agency responsibility for sustained research programs and the transitioning of proof-of-concept measurements into sustained measurement systems," the report said.

At the same time, NOAA is coping with many other problems. Automated buoys, weather balloons, radars and other equipment fail at unacceptably high rates, The Miami Herald's "Blind Eye" series reported in 2005, and budget overruns are legion.

In response to the new report, both agencies issued noncommittal responses.

"It's useful to have such consolidated and prioritized information from the users of our data," NOAA Administrator Conrad C. Lautenbacher said in a written statement. "Once we have a more complete understanding of this complex study, we will be working closely with NASA to assess how our two agencies can best address recommendations."

NASA said it appreciated the group's work and already devotes considerable resources to earth sciences. "The decadal survey offers important guidance on how best to spend that money," the agency said in a prepared statement.

On Capitol Hill, Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., chairman of the House Committee on Science and Technology, praised the committee's work as "a great service in providing clear recommendations for a constructive way forward."

He said the committee would keep a close eye on NOAA and NASA, especially when it came to "continued climate observations."

In some ways, the report represented a scientific version of the Iraq Study Group, which last month issued a comprehensive report about the war.

Both panels stepped back, closely analyzed a government program and issued recommendations to set right what once went wrong.

Brown, the University of Miami scientist who participated in the academy's study, suggested that the group's conclusions should worry all Americans.

"The simple message is that we've spent decades and what amounts to billions (of dollars) in developing state-of-the-art environmental sensing systems from space, and what we're seeing is that these systems are at risk," he said.

The panel urged federal officials to fully fund currently planned satellites and design and launch 17 new missions, but it is already too late to avoid gaps in the U.S. network, he said.

"We might be able to use a foreign satellite capability," Brown said. "But in the U.S. pipeline, there is no way to fix it quickly. There's a lag time that's measured in years. These are long-term decisions that are made."

And now, the consequences are becoming clear.

"To get a report like this through the national academy that even begins to hint at how screwed up things are is pretty amazing," Brown said. "You can tell that feelings are very strong about this."

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© 2007, The Miami Herald.

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